AFL - Betting Systems - Week 11

[GreenValley]

Here is what's on the docket for this week.

System 2......3-8 Under TY
Cleveland Under
Georgia Under

System 3......3-13 Under TY
Arizona Under

System 4......0-1 Under TY
Grand Rapids Over

System 5......2-1 ATS TY
Los Angeles

System 7......2-2 ATS TY
Orlando
New York

System 8......1-6 ATS TY
Columbus

System 10......1-4-1 Under TY
Cleveland Under
Arizona Under
Utah Under
Los Angeles Under
Georgia Under

System 11......OVER plays......0-2 Under TY
Kansas City Over
Utah Over

System 11......Under plays......0-3 Under TY
Cleveland Under
Tampa Bay Under
Dallas Under
Los Angeles Under
Georgia Under

System 12......8-2 ATS TY
Tampa Bay

Note......There are 3 games this week where conflicting systems apply:
Utah / Colorado Total
Dallas / Grand Rapids Total
Los Angeles / New York Sides

Trends Of Interest:
Dallas 4-16 ATS as Non-Conf home favorite
Grand Rapids 12-42 SU as dog
San Jose 31-9 SU vs teams with losing record
Tampa Bay 17-4 ATS a home vs division
Utah 16-6 Over as a favorite

Comment:
It's safe to say that System 8 should not be taken into consideration. It was questioned last week as to it's being ineffective and it had 7-1 team going against a 2-6 team and couldn't get the money. With all winners for the remainder of the year, it still won't come close to it's 3 year prominance of 14-4 ATS. Regardless of what happens this week, system 8 will no longer be charted as its success has gone down the toilet. That's exacly why you only stay with what's working.


BOL,
Green Valley

 

[squib]

Here is what's on the docket for this week.

System 2......3-8 Under TY
Cleveland Under
Georgia Under

System 3......3-13 Under TY
Arizona Under

System 4......0-1 Under TY
Grand Rapids Over

System 5......2-1 ATS TY
Los Angeles

System 7......2-2 ATS TY
Orlando
New York

System 8......1-6 ATS TY
Columbus

System 10......1-4-1 Under TY
Cleveland Under
Arizona Under
Utah Under
Los Angeles Under
Georgia Under

System 11......OVER plays......0-2 Under TY
Kansas City Over
Utah Over

System 11......Under plays......0-3 Under TY
Cleveland Under
Tampa Bay Under
Dallas Under
Los Angeles Under
Georgia Under

System 12......8-2 ATS TY
Tampa Bay

Note......There are 3 games this week where conflicting systems apply:
Utah / Colorado Total
Dallas / Grand Rapids Total
Los Angeles / New York Sides

Trends Of Interest:
Dallas 4-16 ATS as Non-Conf home favorite
Grand Rapids 12-42 SU as dog
San Jose 31-9 SU vs teams with losing record
Tampa Bay 17-4 ATS a home vs division
Utah 16-6 Over as a favorite

Comment:
It's safe to say that System 8 should not be taken into consideration. It was questioned last week as to it's being ineffective and it had 7-1 team going against a 2-6 team and couldn't get the money. With all winners for the remainder of the year, it still won't come close to it's 3 year prominance of 14-4 ATS. Regardless of what happens this week, system 8 will no longer be charted as its success has gone down the toilet. That's exacly why you only stay with what's working.


BOL,
Green Valley

GV

CLE/ORL does not qualify under system 11...both teams are over .500

cheers bud

 

[GreenValley]

Squib

You're absolutely right. Way to keep an eye on things. Now I hope that readers take the time to read the rest of the forum to get this correction.

Based on the following system 11 parameters shown below......Cleveland is 5-4 on the year, clearly above .500 as well as Orlando at 7-3 and thus do not qualify as an UNDER play this week.

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 455pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=606 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 62pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2998" width=82><COL style="WIDTH: 9pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 438" width=12><COL style="WIDTH: 19pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 914" width=25><COL style="WIDTH: 45pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2194" width=60><COL style="WIDTH: 9pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 438" width=12><COL style="WIDTH: 45pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2194" width=60><COL style="WIDTH: 25pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1206" width=33><COL style="WIDTH: 17pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 841" width=23><COL style="WIDTH: 20pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 987" width=27><COL style="WIDTH: 23pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1133" width=31><COL style="WIDTH: 114pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 5558" width=152><COL style="WIDTH: 67pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3254" width=89><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 14.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=18><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 62pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 14.1pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: maroon" width=82 height=18>

System 11​

</TD><TD class=xl33 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 326pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black" width=435 colSpan=10>

Second Half Of Season Totals​

</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 67pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=89></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 14.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=18><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 14.1pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" height=18></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=9>Bet OVER when both teams facing each other are below .500</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 14.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 14.1pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" height=18></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white">23-8 Over L2Y</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white">0-2 TY</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 14.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 14.1pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" height=18></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=9>Bet UNDER when a below .500 team faces an above .500 team</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 14.1pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 14.1pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" height=18></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white">8-54 Under L4Y</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white">0-3 TY</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Gratefully,
Green Valley

 

[AFLGuru]

Trends Of Interest:
Dallas 4-16 ATS as Non-Conf home favorite
Grand Rapids 12-42 SU as dog
San Jose 31-9 SU vs teams with losing record
Tampa Bay 17-4 ATS a home vs division
Utah 16-6 Over as a favorite

GV: How long do these stats go back?

Something feels fishy about TB being 17-4 ATS at home in division because I know last year they went 3-2 ATS and have lost to Orlando a couple other times as favorites at home in recent years. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm only guessing on what I remember off the top of my head.

And you may as well say that GR is 12-42 on that sort of run. They're a bad team. I think they were favored ONCE last year, and TWICE this year, and that's it for the past basically three seasons.

 

[GreenValley]

AFL Guru

Always a pleasure my friend.

Grand Rapids is a bad team and looking back they were 8-17 SU as a dog the L3Y (including 1-5 TY) and the 2Y's prior to that they went 4-15 SU. I guess my only defense for post the stat is that although they are an 11 point dog this week, don't be looking for a moneyline play on them.

I show TB going 1-0 TY, 1-3 in 2007 and 2-1 in 2006....that's the 4 losses there. I picked up on it from another location (either Statfox or ATS Database) the fact that in their glory they had managed a 14-0 record at one time, that's what peaked my interest. In 2003, 2004 and 2005 they were a pretty good team making the playoffs all three years and winning it all in 2003. Currently in 2008 they had a spell of 5 straight losses, last year they started the season 1-6 and in 2006 they ended the season at 2-6. Just an average team these days.


Respectfully,
Green Valley

P.S. If in fact the 11-0 record at one time for TB is in error, then I take full responsibility for perpetuating the mistake....shame on me.

 

[AFLGuru]

Thanks GV. I had no idea that TB went on that tear of games ATS in division at home, as I started watching the wagering in 2004.

 

[rolltide]

in case folks have no idea what GV is referring to, here is his explanations of each system

System 12 was in another thread and I believe it was just betting against a team the week before their BYE

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=568654

 

[METFAN]

i'm confused (nothing new there).

when system 3 says :"3-13 under this yr"

does that mean :

1) if you bet those plays you won 3 and lost 13
or
2) 3 games went over and 13 stayed under?

if you can answer that, i think i can follow the rest:toast:

 

[rolltide]

3 went over vs 13 under

 

[METFAN]

3 went over vs 13 under

SHIT I MISSED IT.I THOUGHT IT WASN'T WORKING THIS YR...

OH WELL CFL SOON:toast:

 

[GreenValley]

Metfan

You'll have to forgive me for some of my posting desrciptions. In my defense let me say that, with 40+ years under my belt in sports betting, bear in mind I'm a little old school.

For many years, when a record for totals was posted it always had the over portion listed first and the under portion listed second. When posting winning records on the internet became popular people has a tendency list their wins first (which makes sense) but with totals they started doing the same thing and lo and behold betting a game under became a 1-0 ATS win.

Just like the site ATS Database. Records of totals starts out with the over 1st and the under 2nd. And I follow suit posting with the same method.

Thus a 3-14 under record translates into 14-3 ATS wins.


Respectfully,
Green Valley

 

[METFAN]

THANK YOU FOR THE GREAT EXPLANATION..

SHIT I MISSED A LOT OF GOOD WINNERS... :toast: